Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗THE U.S. HOMEOWNER MARKET
See the market.
Stress-test the business.
RESEARCH PREVIEW
National indicators • Mixed reporting periods
Automatic checks every 15 minutes
Public-source indicators update on page open and every 15 minutes while open. Reporting periods differ; these are not streaming lender quotes. Scenarios use your assumptions. Inspect coverage →
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Explore county data + borrower scenarios →Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗Awaiting source check
Source / awaiting check ↗01 / RATE REGIME
WEEKLY NATIONAL AVERAGES30-year fixed15-year fixed
Weekly Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. Awaiting source check.
Inspect the 9 weekly observations
| Observation date | 30-year | 15-year |
|---|
02 / EXECUTIVE READOUT
INTERPRETATIONA weekly rate move is not a demand forecast.
Test how a volume lift would interact with pull-through, margin compression and existing staffing costs.
Run a margin scenario →Separate new-build supply from resale.
The supply measure covers new homes. Validate local builder pipelines and concessions before reallocating acquisition spend.
National averages can hide concentration.
Pair house-price changes and debt burden with your own delinquency, vintage and geography exposure.
03 / HOUSING & HOMEOWNER CONTEXT
DIFFERENT UNIVERSES| Indicator | Value | Reference period |
|---|---|---|
| Awaiting source check. | ||
Census/HUD and Federal Reserve via FRED. SA means seasonally adjusted; NSA means not seasonally adjusted. Dates are observation periods, not publication dates; quarterly observations use the quarter’s first day. Sales estimates may be revised. Median prices reflect transaction mix.
04 / LOCAL CONTEXT
NATIONAL DATA LIMITSThe national print is not a local underwriting view.
Compare national indicators with local inventory, recent comparable sales and your own geographic exposure. Regional series are not connected to this refresh.
See coverage and limitations →OPERATING LEVERAGE / MONTHLY MODEL
Volume is a headline.
Contribution is the question.
This model does not predict rates or borrower demand. Change the assumptions independently. Entries stay in this page’s memory and are cleared on reload.
01 / BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
Revenue yield means modeled production revenue as basis points of funded balance, before the variable costs entered here. Choose a consistent accounting basis to avoid double-counting costs.
02 / SCENARIO SHOCKS
USER ASSUMPTIONS03 / BUSINESS CONSEQUENCE
MODELED, NOT FORECASTSCENARIO CONTRIBUTION—
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| Monthly measure | Baseline | Scenario |
|---|
DECISION CHECK
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Model formulas and exclusions
Funded loans = applications × pull-through. Funded balance = loans × average balance. Revenue = funded balance × yield ÷ 10,000. Contribution = revenue − funded loans × variable cost − fixed costs.
Scenario application volume changes multiplicatively. Yield changes in basis points; pull-through changes in percentage points, bounded to 0–100%. Break-even funded loans = fixed costs ÷ (average balance × yield ÷ 10,000 − variable cost), rounded up. A nonpositive per-loan contribution has no finite break-even in this model.
Expected funded loans may be fractional. No taxes, credit losses, capital charge, servicing valuation, hedge P&L, liquidity costs or timing effects are modeled unless you include them in your cost assumptions.
PROVENANCE / REFRESH / COVERAGE
Know what’s behind
every number.
Both editions use the same public FRED data connection. Checks run on page open and every 15 minutes while open, with a shared server cache of up to 15 minutes. Refresh market data checks that cache; it does not force an upstream request. No paid feed or streaming quotes are connected. Reporting dates appear on each indicator; source checks do not imply new observations. Failed series retain their last values and are marked stale. No background job runs while both terminals are closed.
| Source | Reference period | Cadence | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Mac PMMS ↗ | Latest observations shown above | Weekly | Conventional conforming purchase benchmark; not intraday pricing |
| Census / HUD NRS ↗ | Latest monthly observation | Monthly | New single-family houses; sales SAAR, inventory SA; revised estimates |
| FHFA HPI ↗ | Latest monthly observation | Monthly | Purchase-only national index, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change calculated from the same month a year earlier |
| Federal Reserve DSR ↗ | Latest quarterly observation | Quarterly | Debt-service payments as share of disposable income; seasonally adjusted |
Included in this preview
- National reported indicators and weekly rate observations
- Public-source data checks with explicit observation dates
- Transparent production contribution scenarios
- Printable executive workspace
Not connected yet
- Live Treasury, MBS, TBA or lender price feeds
- Loan-level equity, delinquency or servicing portfolios
- State / metro datasets and lender market share
- Firm-specific pipeline, capital and liquidity data
National aggregates cannot establish individual eligibility or local portfolio performance. Interpretations are questions for further analysis, not automated lending or investment recommendations.